🎙️ Just Missed

[5 minutes to read] Plus: Companies that almost broke through

Weekend edition

The ancient Egyptians were trailblazers: They were the first known society to introduce a 365-day calendar, embrace the use of eye makeup, and employ primitive toothbrushes.

Their contributions extended even further into the realm of medicine. In a groundbreaking study published on Wednesday, researchers examined a skull belonging to a man who died in his 30s dating back to between 2686 B.C. and 2345 B.C.

Their findings revealed distinct cut marks around tumors, likely made by "sharp-edged blade" instruments. The evidence suggests that the ancient Egyptians were not only aware of the existence of cancer but also actively sought to understand and treat the disease through surgical interventions.

Today, we'll study excellent business ideas that never made it and why in just 5 minutes to read.

Matthew

Quote of the Day

"All life is an experiment. The more experiments you make, the better."

Ralph Waldo Emerson

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Companies That Almost Broke Through

Made Using DALL-E

Tough odds

About eight out of 10 entrepreneurs who start businesses fail within the first 18 months — roughly 80% crash and burn. Even the best-laid plans can go awry because of factors beyond the founders' control: Some ideas were ahead of their time or launched during unfavorable market conditions.

Take the Iridium satellite phone system, a technological marvel launched before the world was ready. The idea was sound, but the implementation and execution was also flawed. The Segway personal transporter is another classic example of a revolutionary idea that struggled because of execution issues.

Or take Friendster, one of the earliest social networking platforms, which eventually lost out to MySpace and Facebook. Among many factors, it was simply too early for its own good.

Today, we’re outlining instances in which even wonderful businesses can falter, not because of a lack of effort or expertise but due to factors beyond their control, such as bad timing or sheer bad luck.

There’s good reason that even Warren Buffett attributes much of his success over the past 60-plus years to something unexpected: luck.

Webvan

Webvan was founded in 1996 by Louis Borders, the founder of Borders Books and Music. The idea: Create a vast network of highly automated warehouses and a fleet of delivery trucks to bring groceries directly to customers' homes.

Webvan raised $1.2 billion in funding and spent lavishly on infrastructure, including building a state-of-the-art $1 billion distribution center in Oakland, California.

But the company's ambitions outpaced its execution. Webvan struggled with logistical challenges, high operational costs, and intense competition from traditional grocery stores. In one instance, a customer in San Francisco ordered a single box of cereal, which Webvan dutifully delivered – at a reported cost of $27 for the company.

Webvan filed for bankruptcy in 2001, only two years after its launch, leaving investors with big losses and serving as a cautionary tale about the pitfalls of overly ambitious expansion plans.

In many ways, Webvan was just too early for the delivery revolution.

Pets.com

Pets.com was founded in 1998 by Greg McLemore and Eva Savitz, who saw an opportunity to capitalize on the popularity of e-commerce and the pet supply market. By nearly all accounts, it was a great idea.

The company picked up attention through its memorable sock puppet mascot, which was featured in an expensive advertising campaign during the 1999 Super Bowl and other high-profile events.

Pets.com

Yet after raising over $80 million in funding, Pets.com struggled to generate sufficient revenue and could not sustain its high operational costs. During the 2000 holiday season, Pets.com offered a free shipping promotion, which resulted in a massive influx of orders that overwhelmed the company's fulfillment capabilities, leading to delays and customer dissatisfaction, driving its demise.

Pets.com ceased operations in November 2000, just nine months after going public, and its iconic sock puppet mascot became a symbol of the dot-com bust era. Today, the pet-supply delivery market belongs to Amazon and Chewy.

Segway

The Segway, introduced in 2001 by inventor Dean Kamen, was hailed as a revolutionary personal transportation device that would change how people moved around cities. Kamen had spent over a decade and $100 million developing the self-balancing, two-wheeled vehicle, which he claimed would be "more important than the internet."

But the Segway faced several challenges, including high costs (initially priced at $5,000), safety concerns, and limited acceptance from cities and consumers. In 2003, President George W. Bush famously fell off a Segway while touring his ranch, a widely mocked incident that contributed to the device's perception as unstable and impractical.

Despite its innovative technology and initial hype, the Segway never achieved mainstream success and struggled to find a viable market. In 2015, a Chinese firm acquired the company, and production of the original Segway model was discontinued in 2020.

Segway

Friendster

As mentioned earlier, Friendster was one of the earliest social networking sites, launched in 2003. It was clearly a brilliant concept, but Friendster failed and ceased operations. Here's what happened.

Jonathan Abrams founded Friendster with the idea of connecting people with friends of friends. It quickly gained popularity, especially among college students, and by 2003 had millions of registered users. But the site faced technical issues and couldn’t keep up with the rapid user base and traffic growth.

As Friendster grappled with these problems, new competitors like MySpace and Facebook emerged, offering a better user experience and more features. Users started migrating to these newer platforms, and Friendster lost its early mover advantage.

Despite raising over $45 million in funding from venture capitalists, Friendster failed to monetize effectively and address its technical challenges. The site's popularity declined rapidly, and by 2009, it was acquired by a Malaysian company, MOL Global, for $40 million.

Under MOL Global, Friendster pivoted to become a social gaming platform in 2011, shedding its original social networking features. The transition was unsuccessful, and the site lost users and relevance.

In 2015, Friendster shut down indefinitely, citing a lack of engagement and the "evolving landscape" in the industry. The company officially ceased operations in 2018, marking the end of one of the pioneering social networks.

Betamax and LaserDisc

Betamax was a consumer-level analog recording and cassette format of magnetic tape for video, introduced by Sony in 1975. It offered superior video quality compared to its main competitor, VHS.

Yet its tapes had shorter recording times compared to VHS, and JVC, the developer of VHS, licensed its technology to multiple manufacturers, leading to wider availability and lower prices. Timing and strategic decisions about licensing played crucial roles in Betamax's loss in the format war.

As for LaserDisc, the early home video format introduced in 1978 offered high-quality video and audio. It provided better picture and sound quality than VHS and Betamax and was the precursor to technologies like DVD and Blu-ray.

But it was expensive, and the players were bulky. The format also lacked recording capabilities, which were available with VHS. Most notably, the market wasn't ready to adopt a new format that was so different.

Insta’s world

On the flip side, some businesses thrive due to favorable circumstances.

Instagram, for instance, likely would have failed had it launched a few years earlier than it did. But the photo-sharing app launched just as smartphones with high-quality cameras became ubiquitous and social media usage grew rapidly.

The perfect storm helped Instagram attract a massive user base before being acquired by Facebook for $1 billion in 2012. Today, it’s one of the most popular apps worldwide.

By a thread

As Morgan Housel says, much of the world is hanging by a thread: The future is volatile and sensitive to tiny random events that we cannot control or see coming.

Great businesses often combine visionary leadership, innovation, customer focus, and strong teams. Yet, even those factors can’t insulate a company from the whims of timing and luck.

Dive deeper

Watch the story of 20 once-quality companies that went bankrupt and how companies like Toys ‘R’ Us failed.

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